28 Sep 2021 09:58:52
Couple of myths I've read on here last few days:
Best chance of Europe is to win a cup - that's not right. Best chance it's to come in the top 7 in league - much better odds. I'd much rather win the cup and not even be in Europe but our best chance of getting into Europe is definitely the league which we have done 3-4 times in PL hx

We normally struggle against the lower teams - our record against the top 4-6 is absolutely shocking - it's the top clubs we struggle against - barely pick up any points - our record against the lower teams is significantly better than top 4-6. I think from 7-20 our record will be roughly the same against all these clubs but what stops us getting into Europe almost every year is not picking up points at Spurs, Utd, City, Chelsea, Liverpool (although I'm hoping we started to change that last season) .

I think Rafa will make us hard to beat and will have a game plan against these teams - I think that's why he wanted 5 at the back for these games - I wonder if we will return to that system for Utd game (maybe they are working on it in training) - it was pretty poor against Burnley though so would be brave decision.

1.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 10:28:30
Sorry sobs but think wining a cup is best chance of Europe.

Only have to win 6 games. Also with the draw you could potentially miss out on any of the top teams with the draw.

Finishing top 7 is much harder as got to be consistent over 38 games.

Also you’ve got city, Liverpool, Utd and Chelsea who will more than likely be top 4 so then competing with the likes of West Ham, arsenal, spurs, Leicester and currently Brighton and any other team that does well for only 3 places.

The betting odds may be shorter on finishing top 7 but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s easier.

Would love us to finish in the top 7 and get European football but think with our squad it will be a challenge as a few more injuries and could be in big trouble.

If we’re still up and around the top 7 cone Christmas then let’s hope we invest wisely and push on for finishing top 7.

2.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 11:46:44
20 teams in league - finish top 7 is a 35% chance.
Do we have a 35% chance of winning a cup - no.

Of the last 7 times we have played in Europe 6 have come from the league and one has come from the cup

Spurs have been in Europe pretty consistently without winning a cup also

I’d much rather win a cup but the chances are a lot smaller.

3.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 13:02:11
We have won 1 Cup in the last 36 years so I have to agree with Sobs on this one. No way is the cup our best chance, I mean yes a final appearance could do it. But I genuinely can't even recall the last time we made the league cup final, very early 80s I think. So not sure anyone could argue its a good shot.

4.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 14:31:07
I’m not sure you’re getting what I’m saying and to say 35% chance of getting European football via the league is way too simplistic at looking at it.

It would be that percentage if all teams were equal however they’re not.

We are way off city, Utd, Chelsea and Liverpool so take them 4 teams out and that would also realistically be 4 European places gone.

So now it’s 16 teams for 3 places which would be 18.75% .

However that again over simplifies it as that doesn’t take any of the strength of the squads into account or injuries etc. it assumes all equal over the season which is never the case.

Winning a cup would get European football, maybe even getting to the final may even do it depending on who wins league etc.

Realistically winning 6 games gets you to the final if come in at round 3. The draw could be favourable and could avoid all top teams until final.

I can’t remember a season we’ve genuinely gone and tried to win a cup we seem to try and concentrate on the league however that’s not done is many favours in qualifying for Europe.

Genuinely think if we put out our strongest team in all our cup games we could actually get to a final, however we rarely do this.

We all want European football for the club and just hope we manage to get it, be it either a cup or league position that gets it for us.

5.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 16:34:33
If we never draw a PL team in the cup and a conf team make the other final spot then i'd say we had a 50/ 50 chance of winning a trophy.

6.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 16:40:21
Agree with that - should play strong team and bring some silverware as we sure ain’t going to win the league any time soon.

7.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 17:28:36
I'm with Sobs on this one. Yes in theory you could win a cup after getting through 6 rounds without playing a big boy but it's pretty unlikely isn't it. Dan you say that the odds of being top 7 is smaller but that that doesn't mean it's easier. I would suggest that it does show that the professionals paid to gauge how easy/ difficult something is do think that means it's easier. Incidentally, whilst you can't get a price on top 7 the even more difficult top 6 is available at 5/ 2. We are 25/ 1 to win the FA cup. It's possible we were marginally shorter to win the league cup, but even allowing for that if you dutched the two you'd still be getting significantly more than 5/ 2.

8.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 17:52:24
TD never said anything about the odds.

I responded to sobs post where he’d used a percentage analogy, odds not mentioned by either of us.

The smaller the %chance of something happening means it’s harder to achieve

If odds smaller agree that would suggest easier.

9.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 18:16:26
OK guys, I have seen us lift the cup in person twice, in '66 and '95, a 29 year wait, so we should be due another one in 2024 if we wait that long again. I want to go to that one and I will be 84 so forget all the reasoning about which is best, just give an old man his wish.

10.) 28 Sep 2021
28 Sep 2021 20:52:38
Sorry man - just a bit of banter - I’m with Dan that we should go out for the cup - nobody remembers who comes 7th.
The sad thing is - imagine all the cup memories for teams like us, Newcastle, Norwich etc if it wasn’t for all these super rich owners - swings and roundabouts like up to the late 80s would surely mean lots of smaller clubs fans would have had Wembley memories

I doubt city / Utd / Chelsea fans even remember some of their finals as they don’t regard it as being special.