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13 Feb 2018 22:09:31{Ed's Note - toffeebuds has posted a new article entitled, Sam Allardyce at Everton FC

toffeebuds

1.) 13 Feb 2018 22:35:50
And the agenda is?

All you have done is regurgitate the anti SA posts on these forums. The whole article is set out to do nothing more than spout SA is rubbish with not a single new point being made, Even Arsenal was bought back up but no mention of Palace, in fact no mention of any game in which to hold up as comparison. You forgot to mention one very important thing when yapping on about the stats and that is that SA has almost doubled both RK and DU stats combined. When comparing stats the golden rule for them to be credible is to compare them over the same time span not one after 14 games and the other at 4 and writing how close they are. Why not compare DU with SA's first 4 games. Oh yes the results would not look favourable.

Well it took less than 4 hours for someone to present an anti SA post, well done.


2.) 13 Feb 2018 23:21:39
To be fair grumpy your stats are a bit off.

K 6W 5D 6L S. A. 6W 4D 5L hardly double. One of those wins was really Shakespears because he couldn't be arsed going to the game. Let's keep a bit of perspective.

However, what does it matter. He's the manager for now and comparing stats is a little pointless. It's different times of the season and there's less pressure now for results or performances. Let's just get the 42 we need to be safe and look forward to hopefully a new dawn this summer.

A new guy with fresh ideas and bit of ambition might bring us all together.


3.) 13 Feb 2018 23:36:33
Grumpy,

I don't think Allardyce having an "agenda" was actually the key thing I wrote about and I certainly don't think he is the only player or manager to have put himself before the club - I imagine most do it at some point in their careers so I don't think it should be a particularly controversial point.

I also said "I accept everything was not perfect under Unsworth and he did it over fewer games and had no games against the top 6". I was trying to make the point that it is hard to directly compare as the 3 managers have had differing situations and length of time in charge. just as you say.

Every comparison has things that make the situations not identical - different injuries, different form, different opponents, different home/ away split, different preparation times etc, etc.

The point I was making was that you said a few times we are getting nearly double the points per game under Allardyce than before him and that is just not true. not even close.


4.) 14 Feb 2018 07:30:38
Sort of sitting on the fence. like you both say, stats can be manipulated to make a point. As the old joke goes.76.3% of statistics are manipulated to make a point! Aside from jokes. and I don't know the aanswer to this, but this season is all that really counts in my view. and I don't know the answer to this. but what was Unsworths and Koemans combined stats this season. and what are Allergy's stats this season. Done as a percentage? That will show if there has been any improvement.

{Ed001's Note - but it wouldn't. That's why people should forget stats as they clearly do not understand them nor how to use them or analyse them. For starters football does not have enough games a season to prove anything statistically, so any attempt to use stats over an even smaller period is useless. They can suggest something, but nothing can be proven because all sorts of factors can create blips. You need a lot of repeats to smooth out those blips into a potential readable stat. That is why it works so well in baseball, where they play hundred plus times a season, but has never translated as well to other sports. There just isn't enough data, so you end up needing to bring in a lot more factors to analyse to create a picture worth anything. Mere results alone are worthless though, because you would otherwise say Burnley are playing worse now than they were at the start of the season on that one stat alone. If you include all the other stats or even watch them play, you can see that is not true, it is just that they are no longer getting the rub of the green they were getting early on. They were an outlier to prove that results stats on their own are completely unusable over a short period.}


5.) 14 Feb 2018 08:41:28
Ed the golden rule when comparing stats is that they should always have the same criteria.
So let's take the first 8 games of the prem league DU was in charge (there was only 8) he amassed us 8 points. over the same time span at the beginning SA amassed 15 points almost doubled.

The original poster is fully aware that when I have previously stated
about SA almost doubling the average points per game since his arrival that it also included the tenure of RK this season and reading back on my posts I can see this clearly stated.

It is my opinion that the op is obviously trying undermine an argument that neither he nor the other SA haters can answer.

{Ed001's Note - that is just nonsense, you clearly have no idea how to analyse stats. I would suggest we all just ignore your attempts to abuse stats in future as you simply do not understand them. Do you even understand the word context? Please go away and learn some basics of statistical analysis before spouting more ill-informed nonsense. I understand you want to support the manager, I have a lot of respect for your stance, but you don't have to twist things to do so. Nor do you have to constantly snipe at everyone who has a different view.}


6.) 14 Feb 2018 09:09:53
Ok Ed,

Let us pick and choose which games to include in these stats then shall we? Please explain to me why it should not start on the same ground with the same set of rules.

The OP has stated that DU average points per game was 1.4 it is actually 1.0 yet that is allowed to go unchallenged. You say I constantly snipe at those with a different view well I disagree I am merely repeating what has been said over and over again. If anything I try and bring something new to the table and like it or loath it what it does is get people responding. How about saying something to the posters about constantly repeating SA hate, none has bought anything new here regards that topic for at least 2 months yet the posts still are allowed in droves. Someone stands up to it and brings a different view point to the table and he gets publicly chastised for it.

{Ed001's Note - again you don't understand context. Pointless discussing it with you as until you do understand basic concepts like that this will always go over your head and you will continue to fill up this site with crap based on ignorance.}


7.) 14 Feb 2018 09:17:25
Got to admit grumpy. I'm with ed on this one. I'm quite experienced with stats as I was maths teacher in previous life and most of the stats that get spouted on these pages (not just yours) are worthless and inaccurate and unreliable.
To make fair experiments we need some controls. In order to compare stats of our 3 managers, they would have to have played against the same team's, at the same grounds with the same players to understand who the better manager is.
Football is amazing to watch and enjoy the skill, passion and entertainment and it is this human trait of having differences of opinions that makes it so wonderful as a sport and allows forums like this to survive.
We are all entitled to our opinion but we all need to realise that, like him or loathe him, Sam is here until the summer, at least. You can have your sam in or sam out banners come the summer but for the next 12 games or so let's get behind the team (even schneiderlin) and push them as high as we can.

COYB.


8.) 14 Feb 2018 10:06:59
Grumpy coming back and causing carnage everywhere.

{Ed025's Note - to be fair he is just trying to prove his point and be positive W, but its run its course now and i think its time to move on mate..


9.) 14 Feb 2018 10:25:36
Ed001 saying that Grumpy should stay away from stats as he doesn't understand them is a bit over the top. I totally agree that trying to use stats in football to make and sort of profound statement is nonsicle too many variables and no controls for a start. What both parties are doing is comparing a set of data metrics in isolation to try to highlight a point. I don't see this as an issue, pundits do it all the time. This is an opinion site after all.


10.) 14 Feb 2018 13:01:24
Grumpy,

For clarity I used PL games from the Premier League official site for all 3 managers. PL games seemed the most relevant as you had been using points per game to argue there was huge improvement under Allardyce. Unsworth had 2 wins and a draw in 5 PL games. 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 per game. If I am wrong on those facts I apologise but I think it is correct.

Yes there are a ton of other factors, other competitions and general performances which all contribute to a far more rounded picture about how the team is performing.

And yes I agree with the Ed that this is a very small sample for statistics which therefore has no validity for predicting future events but it can be useful as a small part of contributing to our assessment of the past when combined with all the other factors both factual and subjective.

We will each place different emphasis on each factor - for some the style is important, for others the use of young players, for others it is match day excitement, for others it is passion, for others all they are interested in are points. I think most of us sit somewhere in the middle and like all those things to varying degrees.

I am not arguing arguing that points per game is a definitive assessment of the team in or the manager, I was just arguing against your point that points per game under Allardyce is nearly double.

I recognise that you like Allardyce and you are far more positive about him than I am. I really don’t like him or his approach and the post I made was me explaining why I don’t like him and don’t feel he is right for Everton just as yours are the opposite - explains why you think he is the right man right now.

My view is no more valid than yours, this is a place we can all state what we think be it complimentary or critical of the club.


11.) 14 Feb 2018 18:31:45
Toffeebuds I really like that last paragraph. It should be our moto and couldn't have put it better.

I think we're all getting a bit het up for no reason. You can honestly call me anything you want ridicule my post or whatever. I won't hold it against you.

I've been a bit of an idiot now and again (setting myself up for payback there Swan) and i always apologise. But i would never think any less of you in your opinion. Any of you.

I love an argument and will fight my point and give a counter argument. But call me on it if I've overstepped the mark with you. Fine by me. 😉.


12.) 14 Feb 2018 20:39:31
I repeated the joke about 78.3% of stats being made up or something similar. yes short term stats can be misleading and stats can be made to prove a point. or indeed mislead someone. But I can honestly say that Leicester City deserved to win the League and were the most consistent team 2 years ago based on the stats. The Premier League is in itself a statistic. Whenever you look at it. After 1 game you can say which team has been the most consistent. Or after 38 games.

Both are stats and yes before you blow another fuse, I agree that the 1 game stat is a misleading stat if you want to make a longer term judgement. Unfortunately we cannot use stats at this point to say whether or not Sam Allergy will prove to be a good manager for Everton in the long run. We cannot even say if he will be better than Koeman. All we can do is compare Koeman's record this season with Allardyce's record this season. I for one donot want to see Allergy go.

I want some consistency in this club because I know how football clubs can deteriorate with too much change. and how easily things can change. All I was trying to do was calm a situation down a bit whereby people were obviously getting a little emotional (I can guarantee that 100% of real football fans are emotional and that is a stat) , but back to it. only time will tell and some will have differing opinions. We have only just got Grumpy back on here. and I for one am happy to hear his opinions and stats. even if they appear irrelevant on the surface.


13.) 14 Feb 2018 22:54:20
To be fair Degsy Grumpy is the one who went on the attack in this thread. Toffee gave an opinion and grumpy responded negatively to it.

So argue the points being raised but not the people for raising it. They have a right.

Not sure why people have such an issue with the people raising opinion. Your in the wrong place if you're that type of person and will probably end up talking to a shrink before the season is out.


14.) 15 Feb 2018 06:07:14
Here's some interesting stats for you all

Statistically Swansea should never have beaten Arsenal - they did
Bournemouth should never have beaten Chelsea - they did
Watford should never have beaten Chelsea - they did
Newcastle should never have beaten Man Utd - they did
Everton should have beaten Arsenal as SA had set them up exactly the same way as Swansea - we didn't

Leicester should never have appointed Ranieri who hadn't won anything before and look what happened

Everton should probably have sacked Kendall before he took us on the most amazing journey

Same for Man Utd and Ferguson and how many others?

Lesson - Statistics mean nothing in football

Another poser (sorry I meant poster) on this site said ' Being a fan in my opinion means supporting everything not picking and choosing bit and pieces. I WILL support ANY manager we have in same way I support SA'

I disagree. I have supported Everton all my life and hope every week that we win but it will not stop me having an opinion on the best way forward. Otherwise why don't we appoint managers for life like they do Popes if they can do no wrong? Why have an opinion on the next manager or the situation with Walsh if you will support anything the board decides regardless of what you think? Why say anything at all if all you are doing is spouting blind-less faith in SA or the board and not what you really think.

Opinions should be welcomed from everybody and I certainly wouldn't challenge someone's intellect if they have different opinions. To do so is just demeaning and does not help your argument.


15.) 15 Feb 2018 08:03:54
Bw that was beautiful. 😁

Agree with every point on that mate.


 

 

31 Jan 2018 21:47:56
A great performance from Walcott, fantastic to see Coleman marauding down the right wing again and a really valuable 3 points against a good team. What a welcome change to recent performances that was!

What a weird game to watch though. We were awful, then fantastic, then awful then pretty good. I think that inconsistency in the match shows just how mentally fragile this squad is at the moment. I think many of our problems this year have been caused by the poor mental toughness of the squad.

It was nerve wracking to watch at times but hopefully the fact that we had to hang on and did it effectively after that dodgy 5-10 mins after the penalty will be a boost to the confidence of the players.

If the mental strength and confidence can be improved on in the coming games there is plenty of quality in the squad and I think we will be able to win some games.

toffeebuds

1.) 31 Jan 2018 22:08:32
You need certainty and consistency and may I say what a difference a couple of tackles can make add to that we looked far more mobile. I still don't rate the bloke, but Martina put a couple of good tackles and intercepts tonight although I have yet to see the replays later tonight (old age, alcohol and seat position not the best LOL) . Question, always been an advocate of don't change a winning Team, thought that playing and managing. Do we stick with that side or use Niasse as super sub.

{Ed025's Note - i imagine mangala will com in for jags and hope tom gets a rest myself DFS..


2.) 31 Jan 2018 22:08:39
Coleman and Wallcot just make us so much stronger on the right. Good summary of how we were. I like that.


3.) 31 Jan 2018 22:28:10
Nobody has doubted the quality and everyone expected a few tweaks here and there, what we got was a new owner (with dosh) arriving with a new manager whose CV did not stand up to scrutiny and a good Scout appointed way above his pay grade, resulting in a massive influx of players in some cases tripling up for one position. We are now desperately trying to repair the result.


 

 

20 Jan 2018 16:18:14
Don't know what just happened to McCarthy but judging from the reactions and the tv coverage refusing to show the injury it looks like it could be a bad one. Really feel for that guy, he has terrible luck with injuries. Coleman up out of his seat to go chat with McCarthy it looks like.

toffeebuds

{Ed025's Note - double leg break they are saying..


1.) 20 Jan 2018 16:37:19
And his parents were at the game. Apparently they've gone to hospital with him. Massive sympathy to him. That was a heroic block.


 

 

20 Jan 2018 15:40:26
4 hours and 11 minutes in between shots on target. Watching this is depressing. Let's hope for some changes at half time and a different second half.

toffeebuds

1.) 20 Jan 2018 15:56:03
Absolute disgrace. Absolute embarrassment. Coild have messi, suares and ronaldo on the putch still not going to score if we don't get into the box! Midfield playing like they have smoked an ounce of weed each before the match.


 

 

31 Dec 2017 23:49:21
You have got to feel for Mourinho.

First it isn't fair because other clubs are out spending Man Utd who have only spent a few hundred million on players in recent years.

Then he has to put up with only having a couple top talents like Martial and Rashford as his striking options with Lukaku injured.

Now he feels unlucky because a few refereeing decisions have gone against Utd. I mean that doesn't happen to every club over the course of a few years right?

You have to say the turnaround under Big Sam looks bang average when you compare it to the job Mourinho is doing keeping Man Utd out of the relegation fight with the whole world against him! What a clown.

Lets take 5 mins off from arguing about Big Sam's tactics and be thankful we have a manager that acts like a mature adult and not like a stroppy spoilt little brat!

toffeebuds

 

 

 

toffeebuds's rumour replies

 

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13 Feb 2018 21:32:00
Grumpy,

You keep saying that we are getting nearly double the points per game under Allardyce than we did before. If you do the sums we got 0.89 per game with Koeman, 1.40 per game with Unsworth and 1.46 with Allardyce.

toffeebuds

{Ed033's Note - the rest of this post is an article about Sam Allardyce's agenda at Everton


 

 

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29 Dec 2017 16:12:53
Interesting quotes about N'zonzi from Allardyce:

“I would take Steven N’Zonzi tomorrow. He is one of my better buys in my lifetime, only €650,000 from France to Blackburn Rovers. He became young player of the year and player of the year in his first season at Blackburn Rovers when we finished tenth. He was a terrific pinch out of the French leagues and has gone on to do terrific things in his career. For me, knowing him from that age and knowing him now, yes I would like him but with the amount of midfield players I have at the moment I’d have to move some player out to bring a player like Steven in. ”

I wonder if that translates to he won't be coming or that someone will be moving on (assuming N'zonzi wants to come to Everton) ? McCarthy, Besic, Schneiderlein, Gana are the obvious like for like to be potentially improved upon by N'zonzi's arrival with the first 2 the more likely to leave I would think. Perhaps Barkley's (likely) exit is the one out but that would be losing a predominantly attacking midfield option for a more defensive option.

toffeebuds

 

 

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29 Dec 2017 15:27:13
Nzonzi looked really good for Sevilla and I know nothing about Tosun but all the reports are that he is a really good player.

Nzonzi, Gana, Schneiderlein (the version from last year) , Davies, Sigurdsson (if he plays deeper) , Rooney (if he continues to play deeper) , Baningime, McCarthy (if he ever gets fit) and Klaasen (if he adapts to the Premier League) , - there are some really good options of differing types and a basis for a strong central midfield there.

Likewise Tosun (if he turns out to be as good as it sounds like he could be) , Calvert-Lewin and Sandro (if he adapts to the Premier League) provide some varied options which could form the basis of a promising attack.

Some "ifs" attached to a few of the players but we have a good coaching setup at the club at the moment with Allardyce, Lee, Shakespear and the personnel that were there before they arrived so I am hopeful and confident that quite a few of those ifs can be overcome.

I still believe that while we have a poorly constructed squad that is making Allardyce's job difficult (and cost Koeman his) we still have plenty of good players within it. A few quality additions to address the inbalance and glaring gaps (a young left back being the most obvious) could make a huge difference.

toffeebuds

 

 

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26 Dec 2017 23:31:24
I agree. I think he won't be going anywhere unless we get a new centre forward in January for the very point you make.

I love Niasse because of his attitude and would love him to be the answer. I wish more of our players had the same attitude but am I yet to be convinced he is good enough going forward. I hate the way Koeman treated him but I fear his assessment of Niasse's ability might have been fairly accurate.

Lets hope Niasse gets his chance and proves us doubters wrong.

toffeebuds

 

 

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26 Dec 2017 12:15:19
I for one wouldn't have any issues with those exits. Mirallas for me has had all the opportunities to prove he can deliver for us that he deserves and I would have Lookman, Vlasic, Lennon and Sigurdsson in the wide forward positions before him. We also have Dowell to come back next year along with Onyekuru who will both need game time for their development.

While McCarthy can be quality when he is fit, he has been unavailable for what feels like most of the last 2 years and do we really need another central midfielder anyway? We have Schneiderlein, Gana, Davies, Rooney, Sigurdsson, all of which probably get in the side before McCarthy and offer the differing blend of steel and creativity you want from your central midfield options. Add to that the need to give Baningime game time for his development and the rumoured attempts to sign Nzonzi then it will be a very crowded position.

Getting their wages off the books to free up money for the players Allardyce needs I think would be good business even if we can't get much of a fee for them.

Sandro hasn't really shown much since he arrived but I am still hopeful there is a player in there somewhere and desparate for him to succeed with us (along with Klaasen) . Sandro needs game time to adjust to the Premier League if he is ever going to make it with us. I am not sure he will get the opportunities at Everton as he won't displace Calvert-Lewin who has been exceptional and there are strong rumours another striker will be bought early in this window which would make him 3rd choice. If he can go out on loan, get game time in a weaker squad, develop as a footballer and then help us next year then great.

toffeebuds

 

 

 

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14 Feb 2018 13:01:24
Grumpy,

For clarity I used PL games from the Premier League official site for all 3 managers. PL games seemed the most relevant as you had been using points per game to argue there was huge improvement under Allardyce. Unsworth had 2 wins and a draw in 5 PL games. 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 per game. If I am wrong on those facts I apologise but I think it is correct.

Yes there are a ton of other factors, other competitions and general performances which all contribute to a far more rounded picture about how the team is performing.

And yes I agree with the Ed that this is a very small sample for statistics which therefore has no validity for predicting future events but it can be useful as a small part of contributing to our assessment of the past when combined with all the other factors both factual and subjective.

We will each place different emphasis on each factor - for some the style is important, for others the use of young players, for others it is match day excitement, for others it is passion, for others all they are interested in are points. I think most of us sit somewhere in the middle and like all those things to varying degrees.

I am not arguing arguing that points per game is a definitive assessment of the team in or the manager, I was just arguing against your point that points per game under Allardyce is nearly double.

I recognise that you like Allardyce and you are far more positive about him than I am. I really don’t like him or his approach and the post I made was me explaining why I don’t like him and don’t feel he is right for Everton just as yours are the opposite - explains why you think he is the right man right now.

My view is no more valid than yours, this is a place we can all state what we think be it complimentary or critical of the club.

toffeebuds

 

 

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13 Feb 2018 23:36:33
Grumpy,

I don't think Allardyce having an "agenda" was actually the key thing I wrote about and I certainly don't think he is the only player or manager to have put himself before the club - I imagine most do it at some point in their careers so I don't think it should be a particularly controversial point.

I also said "I accept everything was not perfect under Unsworth and he did it over fewer games and had no games against the top 6". I was trying to make the point that it is hard to directly compare as the 3 managers have had differing situations and length of time in charge. just as you say.

Every comparison has things that make the situations not identical - different injuries, different form, different opponents, different home/ away split, different preparation times etc, etc.

The point I was making was that you said a few times we are getting nearly double the points per game under Allardyce than before him and that is just not true. not even close.

toffeebuds

 

 

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09 Feb 2018 16:37:11
Blue Tommy, I agree with that last part you wrote. Yes some of the performances under Unsworth were terrible but I truly believe he took over the team at the hardest point of the season and it was his work that laid the foundations for the run of results that followed. It shouldn't also be underestimated that his efforts and approach were based on a balanced style of football which made the progress he achieved even more impressive. I fully believe that we would be no worse off now had we stuck with Unsworth and we would have also seen far more development of the young players which is vital for next season and beyond.

When Allardyce took over we were 13th and 5 points off the bottom 3. Now we are 10th and 7 points off the bottom 3. Hardly a massive turn around. I don't think the view that Allardyce has steadied the ship and taken us away from danger is really that accurate.

toffeebuds

 

 

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04 Feb 2018 11:29:11
Good post that Stef. I agree, get this season out of the way and start with a clean slate, a new manager and director of football, a fresh attitude from the players, a few left footed players in the squad and an approach that embraces the young talent we have at the club (while guided by the experienced players with quality like Walcott, Sigurdsson, Coleman, Rooney, etc) .

That will give them every opportunity to develop into top class players which (if they actually do develop that way) is the only way we will ever break into the top 6/ 7 in the long term. If it means we drop some points along the way but develop some real top quality players over a few years then so be it.

There are plenty of positive things at the club if you look at the long term however the right manager and director of football are vital if we are to fulfill the potential we have.

I also share your confidence that we won’t get relegated because while we are not that far away in points terms from the bottom 3 it is still a pretty significant “head start” on the plenty of teams below us. They can’t all suddenly find form and overtake us because they will all be taking points off each other.

toffeebuds

 

 

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03 Feb 2018 20:39:04
How about next time look at our players, our strengths and our weaknesses and compare them to the specific game and then come up with a plan tailored to us rather than just trying to copy what someone else did.

That is what an innovative forward thinking manager would do. That is what a good manager would do in order to get the best from the players he has available to him no matter how good or bad they are.

toffeebuds